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Invitation to participate in a roundtable
I’m putting together a roundtable proposal for the upcoming American Political Science Association Annual Meeting, to be held in Chicago on Labor Day Weekend in 2007. The subject? Why, blogging, of course! Here’s the particular cfp to which I’ll be responding: The section continues to invite papers that demonstrate the continuing relevance of literature in an increasingly technological age. In keeping with the current theme, members should also consider the ways in which literature itself should be understood in the 21st century, and who should speak for it. What are we to make, for instance, of the emergence of political documentaries, films and political commentary programs and their ability to shape current debates? What of the enormous popularity of political (auto) biographies and works that explore political issues from the inside as well as from without? Does the "blogosphere" constitute a literary forum of sorts? I want to put together a fair and balanced, so to speak, slate of participants. If you’re interested, send me an email sooner rather than later, as the proposal deadline is November 15th.
 Posted by Joseph Knippenberg | Link to this Entry | Comments | 10/25/2006 1:08 PM
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The Election
There’s some sense things are getting a bit better for the Republicans, and the latest studies suggest that the Senate has moved from a likely Democratic takeover to a likely Republican hold, if barely. Here are the latest Bloomberg poll results. They are encouraging for MO and TN, with the Republicans not only leading but approaching 50%, and my general sense from my Tennessee friends is that Ford is fading a little. The results from VA are not so good, as Allen has apparently fallen behind. Most disturbing, from my view, is that Kyls lead in Arizona is shrinking; he really is a fine senator who richly deserves to be reelected. And he still likely will be.
 Posted by Peter Lawler | Link to this Entry | Comments [10] | 10/25/2006 9:02 AM
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Life Imitates Art
Theres a line somewhere in Mel Brooks second-best movie, Blazing Saddles, about "horn-swoggling cracker-croakers."
Yesterday in Tennessee Harold Ford, Sr., was caught on tape complaining about "crackers" from the Corker campaign. "Horn-swoggling Corker-crackers" anyone?
 Posted by Steven Hayward | Link to this Entry | Comments [13] | 10/25/2006 8:37 AM
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Tick, tick, tick. . .
This WaPo story tells of "voting problems" in 10 states: "The report by Electionline.org says those states, and possibly others, could encounter trouble on Election Day because they have a combustible mix of fledgling voting-machine technology, confusion over voting procedures or recent litigation over election rules."
"Combustible" indeed. Get ready: If Dems lose some close races, watch for screams that "we were cheated!"
 Posted by Steven Hayward | Link to this Entry | Comments | 10/25/2006 6:57 AM
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Democrats and abortion
In a post whose title tracks Steves (with a somewhat different intent, however), MOJs Rob Vischer points to an interview with Nancy Pelosi. Says she: Q: I think the issues that brought you into politics were the environment and also choice. [You had] five children in six years, a Catholic background. . . Was embracing choice an issue with your family?
Pelosi: To me it isn’t even a question. God has given us a free will. We’re all responsible for our actions. If you don’t want an abortion, you don’t believe in it, [then] don’t have one. But don’t tell somebody else what they can do in terms of honoring their responsibilities. Says Vischer: Im not even sure where to begin. In the world according to Pelosi, whether abortion should be legal "is not even a question." We should not outlaw abortion because God gave us free will. (Under that logic, could anything be prohibited by law?) We can effectively register our moral opposition to abortion by not having one. And honoring responsibilities is an inescapably self-defined endeavor. Safe and legal? For sure! Rare? Only for those who dont want to have abortions. And proposing legislation that would reduce the incidence would be a way of registering ones opposition, which NP says we can do only by choosing privately not to have an abortion.
 Posted by Joseph Knippenberg | Link to this Entry | Comments [232] | 10/24/2006 8:16 AM
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Same as the Old Boss?
Financial columnist Jim Jubak notes that prospective Democratic replacements for key House Republican committee chairman might not make environmentalists hearts go aflutter:
But Bartons likely replacement [as chair of the House Energy and Commerce Committee] would be John Dingell, D-Mich., a fierce advocate for the U.S. automobile industry. In other cases, the effect of the change is easier to extrapolate. Pombos likely replacement as chairman of the House Resources Committee would be Nick Rahall, D-W.Va. Can you say "coal," boys and girls?
P.S. Jubaks stock picks are pretty good, too.
 Posted by Steven Hayward | Link to this Entry | Comments [1] | 10/24/2006 8:00 AM
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Political thoughts of the day
E.J. Dionne, Jr. writes about the "radical center," which he thinks may comprise a portion of a new Democratic majority. As he describes it, those who are part of sound to me a lot like the Perotistas of the early 90s. I cant imagine that theyd coexist comfortably with the netroots. Then theres the WaPo/ABC News poll, which shows independents favoring Democrats. But look at the actual results, not what the reporters wrote about. Note, first of all, that its a "registered voter," not a "likely voter," poll. Note, second, that trends in voter enthusiasm favor Republicans, not Democrats, and that those who favor Republicans are actually favoring Republicans, whereas a substantial portion of those who favor Democrats say that theyre voting against Republicans. Sounds kinda Perotista to me. Third, the numbers on Congressional disapproval and on approving of ones member of Congress are, predictably, reversed. Whats more, the levels of approval of ones member of Congress are significantly higher than in 1994 (51-38 in the final 94 poll, as opposed to 62-32 among registered voters now). There is, of course, some not so good news for Republicans in the poll, but many of the trend lines seem to be marginally favoring them. It looks like they hit bottom in the week after the Foley revelations.
 Posted by Joseph Knippenberg | Link to this Entry | Comments [1] | 10/24/2006 7:05 AM
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Tuesday Thoughts
Here and there one can see Democratic paranoia that somehow, either Karl Rove will pull a rabbit out of a hat, or, more likely, Democrats will find some way to blow it themselves. Harold Ford crashing Bob Corkers press conference in Tennessee last week looks like an unforced error.
And then theres this ad in Missouri, with Michael J. Fox trying to lay a partisan guilt-trip on voters. Was this focus-grouped? Seems likely to backfire to me. I wonder what the NLT focus group thinks?
Meanwhile, Castro is still dead, or what?
 Posted by Steven Hayward | Link to this Entry | Comments [6] | 10/24/2006 6:05 AM
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A note on statistical errors, ecological fallacies and biased sampling. or, a meltdown
Jay Cost calls himself a "methods hound" and on that basis has a "methodological critique" of some who talk of a GOP "meltdown." Almost Greek to me, but not quite.
The Washington Post reports on its own poll showing "Republicans are losing the battle for independent voters, who now strongly favor Democrats on the major issues facing the country and overwhelmingly prefer to see them take over the House in November." And the New York Times asserts that Bush now has a new title: "optimist in chief:" "President Bush and his political strategists may be the most outwardly optimistic Republicans in Washington these days, and perhaps the only ones." And Tom Daschle predicts that the Democrats will pick up 25 House seats and 7 Senate seats. Mr. Daschle, a former senator, said he has not yet decided on whether or not to run for president, but it looks like Barak Obama has.
 Posted by Peter Schramm | Link to this Entry | Comments [2] | 10/23/2006 9:54 PM
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Heather Mac Donald beats her dead horse
USA Today provides Heather MacDonald with yet another venue for her critique of religious conservatism, which Ive discussed here, here, here, and here. A couple of new thoughts from Mac Donald with Knippenberg responses: President Bush says his belief that "God wants everybody to be free" informs his foreign policy. This declaration is disquieting, for it means that the presidents war-making decisions are not wholly amenable to worldly evidence. Even if the Iraq adventure were to appear to human minds as patently counterproductive, reversing course would violate a higher mandate. That "God wants everyone to be free" clearly doesnt imply that it is always and everywhere my duty to bring freedom to everyone. There is room for prudence, informed by reason and evidence, to respond to this sort of demand. And of course, what GWB has repeatedly said is that freedom is Gods gift to humanity, which at most affords us a principle for evaluating regimes and for informing our action, rather than supplying an imperative that we must fulfill, posthaste, here and now. And theres this: Conservative atheists and agnostics vigorously support the two-parent family because the life chances of children raised by both their biological parents are demonstrably superior to children raised by single mothers. Moreover, when marriage disappears as a community norm, so do civilizing constraints on male behavior. It doesnt take Bible study to see this. Conservatives do not need God to prove the value of marriage; the sad state of the inner city is testament enough. As a matter of public policy judgment, shes right, but people dont choose to get married (or not), or divorced (or not) in response to public policy judgments. Those judgments might lead us to create some incentives and disincentives to inform these choices, but lots of people take their vows seriously because of the setting in which they made them (and Im not thinking of city hall or the Elvis wedding chapel on the Strip in Vegas). Mac Donald concludes (following Richard Rorty, that exemplary conservative): "Invoking God in the political realm is a conversation stopper, not an invitation to robust debate." In some circumstances, I agree, but so is denying the relevance of faith (and religious duty) in some circumstances. Religious folk should be humble, and they should offer reasons as well as religious witness. Secular rationalists, too, should be humble, though whether and how theyre open to being humbled remains to be seen.
 Posted by Joseph Knippenberg | Link to this Entry | Comments [8] | 10/23/2006 8:47 PM
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The Surgical Science of Age Management
Cosmetic surgery is booming among "boomers." They really, really don’t want to look old; they often believe they can’t afford even a hint of graying in our meritocratic youth culture. And surgeons often prefer to perform really big-bucks operations that don’t even claim to improve the patient’s health.
 Posted by Peter Lawler | Link to this Entry | Comments [1] | 10/23/2006 8:15 PM
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Ahmadinejad Wants More Iranian Babies
In case you wonder why Mark Steyn and others think that the birth of the 300 millionth American is a good thing, take a look at this. You cant be a great nation if your numbers are dwindling. Ours arent . . . yet. And God willing, they wont begin to dwindle any time soon. But we should take great care to greet those who are willing to take on the challenge of parenthood with more respect than we tend to offer them. We should think seriously about a culture that glorifies the excesses of the single life over and against the rewards of family life.
 Posted by Julie Ponzi | Link to this Entry | Comments | 10/23/2006 8:10 PM
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A quirky picture of conservative evangelicals
E.J. Dionne, Jr. reviews this book by Andrew M. Greeley and Michael Hout, which purports to complicate our view of conservative Christians. One example of how the complications work: did you know that lots of African-Americans are conservative Christians, yet they hardly vote in overwhelming numbers of Republicans? If the authors and reviewer mean to say that thee’s no straight line between theological affirmation and political position, I agree wholeheartedly. But let’s at least look for what might the factors are that might be complicating the relationship. And let’s not lose sight of how those factors are present or absent in other conservative Christian communities. And how about this? [C]onservative Protestants were marginally more likely to watch PBS news programs daily than other Americans-with the exception of those who say they have no religion, who watched at about the same rate. “If one finds the temptation irresistible to picture all ‘Jesus people’ as religious fanatics,” Greeley and Hout write, “one should picture a fifth of them glued to PBS stations every evening.” Without knowing more, this doesn’t tell me anything. How are they watching? What else are they watching? Is this a rejection of network news, or is it just preparation for the nature and cultural programming that follows? And, finally, there’s this: Interestingly, the authors report that conservatives were “more likely to admit infidelity in the course of a marriage than were Mainline Protestants.” On this point, they choose to depart from the data to make a moral point. “We wondered in passing why the leaders of the conservative denominations, so eager to denounce threats to the institution of the family, seem disinclined to criticize these relations (about which they claim to be ignorant), which are either fornication or adultery by their own moral standards,” they write. “Homosexuals, it would seem, threaten the family but not infidelity or living in sin.” Greeley and Hout are right to call our attention to this moral inconsistency. No conservative Christian I know winks at infidelity, but there’s no explicit pro-adultery position in the public arena against which to react (unless, of course, you regard those who would in various ways weaken the bonds of marriage to be pro-adultery).
 Posted by Joseph Knippenberg | Link to this Entry | Comments | 10/23/2006 1:05 PM
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Another review of Sullivan
Jean Bethke Elshtain takes on AS, skewering him even more elegantly than David Brooks, to whose review I linked here. Finding AS full of simplifications and distortions, she observes: These distortions and simplifications occur because Sullivan cannot hold doubt and truth together within a single frame. Those who can are not, perforce, fundamentalists. The fundamentalist mindset is quite different, emphasizing rigid moralisms rather than claims to moral truths and norms. Read the whole thing. 
 Posted by Joseph Knippenberg | Link to this Entry | Comments [2] | 10/23/2006 1:00 PM
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Schroeder on Bush
John von Heyking called my attention to this, from former German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeders memoirs. Bush, according to Schroeder, is a religious fundamentalist, with whom there can be no conversation, just like the fundamentalist elements in the Muslim world. But, he assures us elsewhere, his criticism of the Bush Administration doesnt make him anti-American, "[o]therwise, half of US society would be as well." Do you think that the no-holds-barred domestic criticism of the President has licensed these sorts of public statements from foreign figures? And the interviewer from Der Spiegel points out, Schroeder is more tactful regarding Putin (effectively his employer) than he is regarding GWB. For more on Schroeders memoirs (in English), go here. If you read German, theres more here and here.
 Posted by Joseph Knippenberg | Link to this Entry | Comments [1] | 10/23/2006 11:37 AM
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